H1 2026 Recap: The Foundation for H2

Before projecting forward, let's establish where we stand. The first half of 2026 has been a period of adjustment and consolidation:

Property prices: Stabilised after the 2024–2025 correction. Prime corridor prices (Beraban, Pererenan, Uluwatu) held steady or appreciated 3–5%. Secondary locations (less accessible parts of Canggu, northern Ubud) saw slight declines of 2–4%.
Transaction volume: Up 12% compared to H1 2025, driven by regulatory clarity (PP 28/2025) and increased buyer confidence. Singaporean buyer segment grew 25% year-on-year.
Rental yields: Gross yields compressed slightly in the luxury segment (from 10–12% to 9–11%) as higher purchase prices outpaced rental growth. Mid-market yields held steady at 8–10%.
Regulatory environment: PP 28/2025 fully implemented, providing clarity on Hak Pakai durations and foreign ownership pathways. Local Perda (regional regulations) in Badung and Gianyar being updated.
Infrastructure: Airport expansion plans confirmed. LRT feasibility study completed. Both projects have defined timelines (see below).

Market Indicators: H1 2026 vs. H2 2026 Forecast

The following table compares key market indicators for H1 2026 (actual/estimated) with our projections for H2 2026:

Market Indicator	H1 2026 (Actual/Est.)	H2 2026 (Forecast)	Trend
Property price growth (prime corridors)	+3–5%	+5–8%	📈 Accelerating
Property price growth (secondary areas)	−2–4%	0–+3%	📈 Stabilising
Transaction volume (year-on-year)	+12%	+15–20%	📈 Increasing
Gross rental yields (luxury, prime areas)	9–11%	8.5–10%	📉 Slight compression
Gross rental yields (mid-market)	8–10%	8–10.5%	➡️ Stable
Singapore buyer share	25%	28–30%	📈 Growing
Australian buyer share	35%	32–35%	➡️ Stable/declining
New supply (villas entering market)	+8%	+10–12%	📈 Increasing
Average days on market (resale)	180 days	150–170 days	📈 Improving
Infrastructure impact	Low (planning phase)	Moderate (groundbreaking phase)	📈 Increasing
Regulatory uncertainty index	Medium (post-PP 28 settling)	Low (clarity improving)	📈 Positive
Foreign buyer confidence	Moderately positive	Positive	📈 Improving

Source: Pertama Property transaction data, BPN registration data, Bali real estate agency survey (Q1 2026), and government infrastructure project timelines.

Infrastructure: The Game-Changers Coming in H2

Two infrastructure projects dominate the H2 2026 outlook for Bali property:

1. Bali LRT (Light Rail Transit) — Groundbreaking Confirmed

After years of feasibility studies and political debate, the Bali LRT project has passed its final approvals and groundbreaking is confirmed for Q3 2026. The initial 12.5 km corridor will connect Ngurah Rai International Airport to the Central Parkir area near Seminyak, with four stations planned.

What this means for property:

Immediate impact: Properties within 1 km of planned stations are already seeing price premiums of 8–12% as buyers anticipate improved accessibility. This effect will strengthen as construction begins.
Medium-term (2026–2028): The corridor between the airport and Seminyak/Kuta will see accelerated development. Land values in the transit-oriented development (TOD) zones are projected to appreciate 20–30% above the market average by 2028.
Geographic shift: Areas that were previously considered "too far" from the airport — like northern Canggu (Pererenan, Seseh) — become more accessible. The LRT's southern corridor effectively expands the commutable radius for tourists and residents, benefiting villa demand in a wider geographic area.
Property types to watch: Mixed-use developments near LRT stations, apartment/condo units (a rising trend in Bali), and serviced residences targeting transit-oriented tourists.

2. Ngurah Rai International Airport Expansion

The long-awaited airport expansion, including a new terminal and runway upgrades to increase capacity from 24 million to 40 million passengers annually, is expected to receive final funding approval in late Q3 2026, with construction beginning in Q1 2027.

What this means for property:

Demand driver: Increased passenger capacity directly translates to higher tourism numbers. Each additional million passengers generates demand for approximately 200–300 additional accommodation units (hotels, villas, guesthouses), supporting occupancy rates across the island.
Southern corridor: Areas along the airport-to-Uluwatu corridor (Jimbaran, Pecatu, Ungasan) will benefit most from improved airport access and the associated development of airport-linked commercial zones.
Land banking: Institutional investors and developers are already acquiring land near the airport expansion zone, particularly in the Tuban and Jimbaran areas, anticipating commercial and hospitality development.

3. Other Infrastructure Developments

While LRT and the airport dominate headlines, several other projects will influence H2 2026 property dynamics:

Toll road extension (Nusa Dua–Benoa–Ngurah Rai): Completion of the final section improves connectivity between the Nusa Dua tourism zone and the airport, benefiting properties in South Bali and the Bukit Peninsula.
Sanur port expansion: The marina and cruise ship terminal expansion continues, supporting demand in Sanur and eastern Bali — a market segment that has historically been undervalued relative to the south and west.
Digital nomad visas and remote work infrastructure: The Indonesian government is expanding the digital nomad visa (B211A) program, with a new co-working and coliving hub planned in the Canggu–Pererenan corridor. This directly supports demand for mid-market rental villas targeting the 6–12 month digital nomad demographic.

Regulatory Landscape: What's Changing in H2 2026

The regulatory environment continues to evolve. Here are the key changes expected in H2 2026:

1. Regional Zoning Updates (Perda)

Badung Regency — home to Canggu, Seminyak, Uluwatu, and most of Bali's prime tourism corridors — is finalising its updated RTRW (Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah) zoning plan, expected to be gazetted in August–September 2026. Early drafts suggest:

Tighter building height restrictions in certain coastal areas to preserve visual corridors.
Expanded tourism zones in areas previously classified as residential, bringing more properties into the permitted short-term rental category.
Subak buffering zones: New setback requirements for development near traditional irrigation systems, which could reduce buildable area on affected land parcels.

2. Enforcement Acceleration

The Satgas PKB (building enforcement taskforce) announced increased inspection targets for H2 2026 — they plan to inspect 30% more properties than in H1. This means:

Higher probability of violations being detected, especially for properties operating as short-term rentals without proper permits.
Increased demand for properties with clean, compliant documentation — making PBG-verified villas more valuable relative to non-compliant ones.
Potential short-term disruption if enforcement actions result in property closures, temporarily reducing rental supply and supporting yields for compliant properties.

3. Tax Policy Stability

No major tax changes are expected in H2 2026. The PPh Final rate (2.5% on sale) remains unchanged. The BPHTB rate (5% on acquisition) remains unchanged. The PPn (VAT) rate, which was raised to 11% in 2025, is not scheduled for further increases. However, the government is considering a progressive BPHTB structure for high-value properties (above a certain threshold), which could be announced in the 2027 budget later this year.

Demand Trends: Who's Buying in H2 2026?

The buyer composition of Bali's property market is shifting significantly. Here are the key demand trends for H2:

Singaporeans — The Fastest Growing Segment

Singaporean buyers are expected to represent 28–30% of foreign transactions in H2 2026, up from ~18% in 2024. This growth is driven by:

Singapore bank financing: As covered in our Singapore bank financing guide, OCBC, UOB, DBS, and Maybank are increasingly active in Bali property lending, making financing accessible and competitive.
No CGT: Singapore's absence of capital gains tax makes Bali property significantly more attractive for Singaporeans than for Australians or Europeans.
SGD strength: The Singapore dollar has remained strong against the IDR, giving Singaporeans 8–12% more purchasing power than three years ago.
Proximity and connectivity: Singapore–Bali is a 2.5-hour flight with multiple daily flights. The airport expansion will further improve connectivity.

Buying pattern: Singaporeans tend to prefer premium properties (USD 500K–1.5M) in established areas with strong rental histories (Beraban, Uluwatu, Seminyak). They are more likely to use Singapore bank financing and prefer turnkey, fully managed investments.

Australians — Steady, Shifting Preferences

Australian buyers remain the largest single segment at 32–35% of foreign transactions, but their preferences are evolving:

Shift to mid-market: Fewer Australian buyers are competing in the ultra-premium segment (AUD 1.5M+), which is increasingly dominated by Singaporeans and Chinese buyers. Australian buyers are focusing on the AUD 400K–800K sweet spot.
Leasehold acceptance: More Australian buyers are accepting leasehold (Hak Sewa) structures as a lower-cost entry point, particularly in emerging areas like Seseh, Tumbak Bayuh, and Kedungu.
Refinancing activity: With Australian interest rates stabilising, some existing owners are refinancing rather than selling, reducing resale supply in the mid-market segment.
CGT awareness: As we documented in our Bali villa exit strategy guide, Australian sellers are increasingly conscious of CGT implications, leading to longer holding periods and more strategic exit timing.

Indian and Chinese Buyers — Emerging Force

Indian and Chinese buyers, while still a smaller segment, are growing rapidly:

Indian buyers: India's growing middle class and high-net-worth population, combined with strong India–Indonesia bilateral relations, is driving a new wave of interest. Indian buyers tend to prefer land banking and development opportunities rather than completed villas.
Chinese buyers: The relaxation of China's capital controls for Southeast Asian real estate has opened the door for more Chinese capital flow into Bali. Chinese buyers favour premium branded residences and development sites.

European and UK Buyers — Consistent

European buyers (UK, France, Germany, Netherlands) represent a steady 15–18% of foreign transactions, typically buying through corporate structures (PT PMA) for higher-value properties. The UK's CGT regime (18–24%) is less punitive than Australia's, making Bali more attractive for British buyers.

Pricing Outlook: Where Values Are Heading

Our pricing model, which incorporates infrastructure timelines, supply pipeline data, demand projections, and macroeconomic factors, projects the following price movements for H2 2026:

Prime Tourism Corridors (Beraban, Pererenan, Uluwatu, Seminyak)

Forecast: +5–8% in H2 2026

These areas will benefit most from the LRT groundbreaking and airport expansion confirmation. Limited developable land in the most sought-after locations — particularly the Beraban–Pererenan green belt — continues to constrain supply. Properties with clean permits, good access, and sea/river views will command premium pricing. We expect the strongest price growth in the Pererenan–Seseh corridor, which is directly in the path of the LRT route and still offers relatively good value compared to central Canggu.

Secondary Tourism Zones (Jimbaran, Sanur, Kedungu, Tumbak Bayuh)

Forecast: 0–+3% in H2 2026

These areas are seeing moderate price growth as buyers priced out of prime corridors seek alternatives. Sanur's port expansion and the eastern development corridor provide a positive long-term story. Kedungu and Tumbak Bayuh are benefiting from "overflow" demand from Canggu, though liquidity remains lower — properties take longer to sell.

Ubud and Interior

Forecast: −1–+2% in H2 2026

Ubud's property market remains polarised. High-end wellness retreats and villas with rice terrace views continue to command strong prices. But mid-market properties — particularly those reliant on short-term tourism rental — face headwinds from increased supply and slowing growth in visitor numbers to the Ubud area (tourists are increasingly staying in Canggu and Uluwatu and visiting Ubud as a day trip).

Bukit Peninsula (Ungasan, Pecatu, Bingin)

Forecast: +3–5% in H2 2026

The Bukit continues its steady appreciation, supported by luxury tourism demand and limited supply of cliff-front properties. The completion of the toll road extension improves connectivity, and the airport expansion directly supports this corridor. Properties with ocean views in established Pecatu estates (e.g., Pecatu Indah Resort) remain the strongest performers.

Risks and Downside Scenarios

No forecast is complete without addressing the risks. Here are the factors that could moderate or reverse the positive outlook:

1. Global Economic Slowdown

A sharper-than-expected global economic downturn — particularly in China and Europe — would reduce the pool of foreign buyers. Bali's property market, while domestically anchored, remains dependent on foreign demand for the premium and luxury segments. A 10% reduction in foreign buyer demand would likely translate to 3–5% price moderation.

2. IDR Depreciation

Continued IDR depreciation against the SGD and AUD makes Bali property more affordable for foreign buyers (good for demand) but simultaneously raises concerns about currency risk for existing owners when repatriating sale proceeds. If the IDR weakens beyond IDR 11,500/AUD (from ~10,500 currently), it could trigger a wave of distressed selling by owners seeking to exit before further depreciation.

3. Regulatory Overreach

While the current regulatory trend is positive (clarifying foreign ownership, improving enforcement of existing rules), there is always a risk of unexpected regulatory changes — particularly at the local Perda level. The updated Badung RTRW, expected in August, could introduce restrictions that negatively affect specific properties or areas.

4. Oversupply in Specific Segments

The number of new villas entering the market continues to grow at 10–12% annually. In specific micro-markets — particularly mid-range villas in central Canggu — there are signs of supply exceeding demand. Sellers in these segments may need to discount 5–10% to achieve a sale in H2 2026.

Investment Strategy for H2 2026

Based on the forecast above, here are our strategic recommendations for different investor profiles:

For First-Time Buyers: Act Now in Emerging Corridors

If you're entering the Bali market for the first time, H2 2026 offers a window of opportunity in areas that will benefit from the LRT and airport expansion but haven't yet fully priced in the infrastructure premium. Focus on:

Pererenan–Seseh corridor: Within the LRT influence zone but still 15–25% below central Canggu pricing.
Jimbaran hills: Proximity to the airport expansion zone, improving road connectivity, and growing dining/hospitality scene.
Sanur and eastern Bali: Traditionally overlooked but benefiting from port expansion and a growing digital nomad community.

The key advantage of entering now is locking in prices before the infrastructure premium fully materialises. Our analysis suggests the LRT groundbreaking alone will add 5–8% to land values within 1 km of planned stations within 6 months of the announcement.

For Expanding Investors: Focus on Compliance and Documentation

If you already own Bali property and are considering adding to your portfolio, prioritise properties with:

Clean PBG (building permit) documentation — these properties will command a growing premium as enforcement increases.
Clear Hak Pakai or HGB titles — no nominee structures, no unresolved title issues.
Zoning that explicitly permits short-term rental — verify this through the local RDTR, not just the seller's representation.

In the H2 2026 market, "buying cheap" on a non-compliant property is a false economy. The enforcement trajectory is clear, and non-compliant properties are becoming harder to sell, rent, and insure.

For Sellers: Time Your Exit Carefully

If you're planning to sell, the optimal window is August–October 2026, when:

The LRT groundbreaking (Q3) provides a positive market sentiment boost.
European summer holidaymakers are in Bali (June–August) and may convert viewings into purchases.
Buyer activity is at its seasonal peak.
The Badung RTRW update (expected August) may restrict development in certain areas, making your property more valuable if it's in a zone that becomes supply-constrained.

For comprehensive guidance on the selling process, see our Bali villa exit strategy guide.

What the Experts Are Saying

We surveyed ten of Bali's most active real estate agents, lawyers, and developers for their H2 2026 outlook. Here's what they're saying:

"The LRT groundbreaking is the most significant event for Bali property since the foreign ownership regulations were reformed. We're already seeing Singaporean and Hong Kong buyers asking about station proximity before they ask about yield. That's a shift in buyer priorities that tells you where the market is heading."
— Senior agent at a leading Bali luxury real estate agency, Beraban office

"Compliance is becoming the number one due diligence issue. Three years ago, 70% of buyers would accept a property without a confirmed PBG. Now, 70% of buyers' lawyers flag it as a condition precedent. The era of 'it'll be fine, everyone does it' is ending."
— Indonesian property lawyer, Jakarta-based, specialising in foreign buyer transactions

"The buyer pool has fundamentally diversified. It used to be 70% Australian. Now we're seeing more Singaporeans, more Indians, more Europeans. This is healthy for the market — it reduces the risk of a single-market downturn affecting all Bali property values."
— Developer, Pererenan-based boutique villa builder

Conclusion: H2 2026 — A Market in Transition

The second half of 2026 marks a transition point for Bali's property market. The convergence of major infrastructure projects (LRT, airport expansion), regulatory maturation (PP 28/2025 bedding down, Perda updates), and demand diversification (rising Singaporean, Indian, and Chinese buyer segments) creates a fundamentally different market from the one that existed even 18 months ago.

For investors who understand these shifts and position themselves accordingly, H2 2026 offers compelling opportunities — particularly in emerging corridors that will benefit from infrastructure-driven appreciation. For those who rely on outdated assumptions about buying processes, pricing, or market dynamics, the risks are higher than they've been.

The overarching theme is professionalisation. Bali's property market is moving from a frontier market — where informality and "make it work" attitudes prevailed — to a maturing market where compliance, documentation, and professional advice are prerequisites for success. This is good news for serious investors. It raises the bar for entry, but it also reduces the risk profile and supports long-term value creation.

The investors who will thrive in H2 2026 and beyond are those who adapt to this new reality: prioritise legal compliance, understand the infrastructure story, diversify their buyer targeting, and work with professional advisors who understand both Indonesian regulations and international buyer expectations.

Ready to plan your H2 2026 Bali property strategy?

At Pertama Property, we help investors navigate Bali's evolving market with data-driven advice on location selection, legal structuring, financing, and timing. Whether you're entering the market, expanding your portfolio, or planning an exit, our team can help you make informed decisions.

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Pertama Property is a Bali-based property investment and development company specialising in cross-border acquisitions and advisory for international investors. Our analysis draws on transaction data, government planning documents, and on-the-ground market intelligence.

Disclaimer: This forecast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions are subject to change based on economic, regulatory, and geopolitical factors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

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